Key takeaways
- Overall index declines (-1.1)
- Perceptions of household finances see short term (-1.1) fall; outlook falls too (-0.6)
- Retrospective (-3.0) and forward-looking (-1.2) measures tracking house prices decline
- Only measure that saw improvement was short-term business activity (+1.1)
The latest YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index saw a decline of -1.1 in October to 105.1. October’s decline is the largest fall since April this year, and the second consecutive month of deterioration for the overall index.
YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months.
House prices saw the largest month-on-month drop, falling -3.0 points to 108.9. Although the measure is still in positive territory this represents the lowest these scores have been since January 2024. Outlook saw a decline as well, falling -1.2 points to 127.3.
Looking at job security measures, employees were less likely to report feeling secure in their roles over the past 30 days, with scores falling from 92.6 to 91.3 (-1.3). Their perceptions of the next 12 months also fell, with scores shifting from 117.4 to 115.9 (-1.5).
William Ulstein, YouGov UK CEO, said: “This data was collected before the chancellor’s budget on 28 October. We know from our other work that John Healey’s first budget is seen as fairest in five years. Healey promised breathing space; the decline across almost all measures in October’s consumer confidence data suggests that breathing space is required, so it will be interesting to see how these figures change next month.”
Sam Miley, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr, said: “With inflation on the up, the path for interest rates is higher than it would have otherwise been. Indeed, the Bank of England may well hike rates in the first week of November. This likely contributed to the weaker sentiment for house price growth shown this month, which drove the overall Index decline. Elsewhere, the financial sentiment metrics reached near-term lows, as households felt the pinch from higher prices in essential categories, including fuel and energy.”
