The mood: Budget-conscious, but loosening the purse strings
Consumer confidence(1) in Belgium has taken a dip in recent months, driven largely by growing pessimism about the country's economic outlook. With inflation(2) running at 5.26%, though notably, food's contribution has become negligible, Belgians remain watchful. And budget and economic concerns are still the number-one societal worry (3).
Yet beneath the caution, a subtle but meaningful shift is taking place. While price and promotions continue to dominate purchasing decisions, Belgians are increasingly buying what they like rather than just what they need(3). Attention to quality is rising. In other words: affordability remains king, but the court is making room for premiumisation.
The big picture: A market that's cooling
The Belgian FMCG market continues to decelerate. Value growth for YTD September 2026 sits at a modest +1.5%, made up of marginal food inflation (+0.4%), a volume lift (+1.2%), and negligible trading effects (-0.1%). Compare that to the surges in the past years, and the cooling trend is unmistakable.
Volume growth remains structurally weak. Indexed against 2019, volumes have only grown by about 2.6% in seven years, essentially flat.
The outlook for 2027 suggests a potential re-acceleration, with food inflation forecast to return, pushing estimated value growth. But volume is expected to remain sluggish, and some of that inflation-driven growth may be offset by consumers trading down.
Fewer trips, more loyalty: How shopping behaviour is shifting
One of the most striking structural trends is the continued long-term decline in shopping frequency. Belgians are making fewer trips than they did pre-pandemic, and the battle for each individual shopping mission is intensifying. The most recent quarter suggests a slight increase in trip frequency in the very short term, but this does little to alter the long-term trajectory.
Specialty stores and hard discounters have been hit hardest, losing numerous shopping trips compared to last year. Traditional trade (bakeries, butchers, and the like) continues a long, steady decline. The trip share of traditional trade has nearly halved since 2016, falling from 20.7% to just 13.0%.
Supermarkets and proximity stores, by contrast, are holding their ground. Beauty and drugstores are a standout growth story, posting double-digit value growth and steadily increasing their share of trips.
An important nuance: the drop in shopping frequency is being driven primarily by upper-class households, historically the most frequent visitors to specialty stores. These families are now consolidating their shopping across fewer stores and fewer trips, a trend that is pulling down overall market frequency.
The flip side? Loyalty is inching upward. Belgian households are visiting fewer banners on average (6.1, down from 6.4 in 2023), and retailer loyalty scores are rising, though at 15.7%, one might debate whether "loyal" is the right word just yet.
Sunday: The new shopping day
Perhaps no trend better captures the changing rhythm of Belgian life than the rise of Sunday shopping.
Sunday's share of weekly shopping trips has climbed from 5.9% in 2023 to 7.4% in MAT September 2026, and its value share has risen even faster, from 4.1% to 5.8%. More households are shopping at supermarkets on Sundays than ever before, and Sunday baskets are getting bigger.
Crucially, this growth is mostly about timing rather than incremental demand: shoppers are shifting spend from other days of the week into Sunday, rather than spending more overall. But the opportunity is real: Sunday shoppers are more open-minded. They're more likely to buy unplanned products and less committed to specific brands, making Sunday a prime window for in-store activation and discovery.
Fresh food remains the dominant mission driver on Sundays, but the product mix is broadening. Categories like chilled food, beverages, and ambient food are all gaining share in Sunday baskets: Sunday shopping is moving from an occasional fresh-food run to a genuine routine.
The class divide: Upper class buys more, lower class spends more
An interesting divergence is emerging across social classes. Upper-class households are increasing their volume per buyer (+0.6%) while lower-class households are seeing volume decline (-1.3%) but spend per buyer rise (+0.2%), suggesting they're paying more for less.
This plays out in brand preferences too. A-brands have been regaining value share overall (60.0% in MAT September 2026, up from 59.5% a year earlier), with premium brands in particular gaining ground. But here's the twist: lower-class households are increasing their A-brand share faster than upper-class ones, narrowing the traditional gap. In value terms, the A-brand share for lower-class families rose from 57.0% to 57.8%, while upper-class households held relatively steady around 60-61%.
Promotions: Pressure is mounting
Promotional intensity is rising sharply. Overall promo pressure (by volume) jumped from 18.9% to 22.5% year-on-year, with A-brands seeing the biggest increase (from 31.5% to 36.5%). Private label from open-market retailers appears to be adopting a more consistent everyday-low-price positioning, keeping its promo levels relatively flat.
The share of heavy deal-seekers (households buying more than 40% of their volume on promotion) has grown from 22.5% in 2024 to 33.6% by mid-2026. These "deal-to-deal" buyers are disproportionately important for branded manufacturers, spending significantly above average on A-brands. For brand owners, the question is becoming urgent: how do you build brand equity when a growing share of your volume depends on the next deal?
Two Wildcards: Heatwaves and GLP-1
The summer of three heatwaves
Belgium experienced three distinct heatwaves in summer 2026, and the impact on shopping was immediate. Trips spiked with temperatures, and nearly 59% of households reported avoiding cooking because of the heat, reaching instead for salads, cold meals, and ready-to-eat options.
The category winners were predictable but dramatic: water, sports drinks, juices, syrups, meal salads, and canned fruit all surged. Losers included bread, frozen vegetables, flour, and baking products. Ice cream, notably, sits in an interesting middle ground: high uplift, but less reliably linked to heatwave intensity than beverages.
GLP-1: The quiet disruptor
Around 12% of Belgian households have now used or are currently using GLP-1 weight-loss medications, and the effects on shopping behaviour are significant. Users report eating smaller portions, snacking less, and consuming fewer calories. Across tracked categories, volume drops of 5–7% are observed among users we tracked in some other European countries. Spend on categories like ice cream and beer falls meaningfully, while healthier options like fruits, vegetables, and bouillon see gains.
If the large pool of "considerers" follows suit, the impact on FMCG volumes could be substantial and structural.
What it all means: Three strategic imperatives
- Win the trip, not just the transaction. With fewer shopping trips in play, every store visit matters more. Retailers and brands need to think about mission-based strategies, making each trip count through relevance, inspiration, and convenience.
- Play the premiumisation wave.. smartly. Belgian shoppers are trading up, but they haven't abandoned their price radar. The brands that win will be those that justify their premium through genuine quality and emotional connection, not just price architecture.
- Prepare for structural disruption. From the decline of traditional trade to the rise of Sunday shopping, from GLP-1's impact on consumption to the growing power of deal-seeking shoppers, the landscape is shifting in ways that won't reverse. The time to adapt is now.
Data and insights referenced in this article are based on YouGov's Belgian Shopper Panel, covering FMCG purchases by private households. The analysis period runs through September 2026.
(1) Source: National Bank Belgium
(2) Source: Statbel
(3) Source: YouGov, Behavior Change report Belgium Spring